Category Archives: Blog

The ultimate aim of the Portfolio Probing blog is to help make fund management more effective, to make savings safer through better tools and better methods. Patrick Burns, the founder of Burns Statistics, offers a unique mix of experience in quantitative finance, statistics, computing and writing.

Efficient Atmospheres Hypothesis

Mark Buchanan in The Physics of Finance has another great post called “Of hurricanes and economic equilibrium”. The Efficient Market Hypothesis has been beaten up quite a lot lately, but this is quite a nice pummeling.  How would a meteorologist using the equivalent of the EMH fare in the aftermath of Hurricane Irene? Subscribe to … Continue reading

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A brief history of S&P 500 beta

Data The data are daily returns starting at the beginning of 2007.  There are 477 stocks for which there is full and seemingly reliable data. Estimation The betas are all estimated on one year of data. The times that identify the betas mark the point at which the estimate would become available.  So the betas … Continue reading

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Quantum thinking

Human logic is more like quantum logic than formal logic. The Physics of Finance in “Quantum thinking” points to an article in New Scientist (actually the cover piece) about the connection between the mathematics used in quantum physics and the non-logicality of human logic.  The blog post also gives some interesting background on the writing … Continue reading

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Review of “Risk and Meaning” by Nicolas Bouleau

The subtitle is: Adversaries in Art, Science and Philosophy. Executive Summary Genius or madness? I haven’t decided. Irreversibility of interpretation The book drives home that once we decide how something is we can’t go back to our state of innocence. Figures 1 through 3 exhibit this idea via a randomly generated polygon.  Look at Figure … Continue reading

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Schelling points and prices

Deus Ex Macchiato has a brief post called “Prices as modified Schelling Points”.  It is a cute little idea about how markets work. I had known of the concept of Schelling points but not their name. Subscribe to the Portfolio Probe blog by Email

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A critique of financial advice

Dan Ariely has a post called “Asking the right and wrong questions” about financial advisors.  It starts off with: For the most part, professional financial services rely on clients’ answers to two questions: How much of your current salary will you need in retirement? What is your risk attitude on a seven-point scale? In his … Continue reading

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Realized beta and beta equal 1

What does beta look like in the out-of-sample period for the portfolios generated to have beta equal to 1? In the comments Ian Priest wonders if the results in “The effect of beta equal 1” are due to a shift in beta from the estimation period to the out-of-sample period.  (The current post will make … Continue reading

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Market efficiency versus stability

Mark Buchanan has a piece on Bloomberg called “Sand in the machine the key to stable markets”. This is an introduction into the idea that market efficiency is at odds with market stability. A couple of quotes: Every modern economy depends on financial markets … to funnel capital into the most worthwhile enterprises. But we … Continue reading

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The effect of beta equal 1

Investment Performance Guy had a post about beta equal 1.  It made me wonder about the properties of portfolios with beta equal 1.  When I looked, I got a bigger answer than I expected. Data I have some S&P 500 data lying about from the post ‘On “Stock correlation has been rising”‘.  So laziness dictated … Continue reading

Posted in Quant finance, R language, Random portfolios | Tagged , , , | 12 Comments

Things I learned at useR!2011

The title says “things” but conferences are mainly about people. Some of it can be serendipitous.  For example, one day I sat next to Jonathan Rougier at lunch because I had a question for him about climate models.  When Jonathan left, I started a conversation with the person on my other side.  That was most … Continue reading

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