Tag Archives: loess

Creating prediction distributions

Here we give details and code for the prediction distributions exhibited in yesterday’s blog post “Tis the season to predict”. [Revision: There was a problem with the plots published in that post.  For corrected plots and an explanation of the error, see Revised market prediction distributions.] Eight years of returns The equity indices use daily … Continue reading

Posted in Fund management in general, R language | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

Were stock returns really better in 2007 than 2008?

We know that the S&P 500 was up a little in 2007 and down a lot in 2008.  So on the surface the question seems really stupid.  But randomness played a part.  Let’s have a go at deciding how much of a part. Figure 1: Comparison of 2007 and 2008 for the S&P 500. Statistical … Continue reading

Posted in Quant finance, R language | Tagged , | 2 Comments