Some market predictions

We look at a few forecasts for the year 2011 that we’ve run across, and compare them with the prediction distributions presented in Revised market prediction distributions.

FTSE 100

There is a “range forecast” on an Interactive Investor page of 5350 to 6565.  It isn’t clear (to me at least) what this means, but I find it fascinating that it is ever so close to a 95% confidence interval  assuming no market movement via my technology.  The quantiles of that range are 3.2% and 97.6%.

Table 1: Some 2011 predictions for the FTSE 100.

person firm value reference
Kevin Goldstein-Jackson 3,980 webpage
Jaskarn Pawar Investor Profile 6,000 webpage
Andrew Swallow Swallow Financial 6,100 webpage
David Stevenson 6,200 webpage
Danny Cox Hargreaves Lansdown 6,400 webpage
Peter Temple 6,475 webpage
Melvyn Bell Lowes Financial Management 6,500 webpage
Justin Urquhart Stewart Seven Investment Man. 6,660 webpage
Martin Bamford Informed Choice 6,700 webpage
Nick Louth 7,000 webpage

Figure 1: FTSE 100 (UK) 2011 prediction distribution with predictions.

Dow Jones Industrials

A range for the Dow Jones of 10,300 to 12,750 is predicted by tradersir. That corresponds to quantiles of 1.4% to 97.3% in my distribution.  Ranges are also given for the S&P 500: 1100 (0.9%) to 1400 (98.0%).

Table 2: Some 2011 predictions for the Dow Jones Industrials.

person firm value reference
E. Thomas McClanahan Kansas City Star 12,700 webpage
Tobias Levkovich Citi 13,150 webpage

Figure 2: Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 2011 prediction distribution with predictions.

S&P 500

Table 3: Some 2011 predictions for the S&P 500.

person firm value reference
Jonathan Golub UBS 1,325 webpage
Laszlo Birinyi Birinyi Associates 1,333 webpage
Robert Doll Blackrock 1,350 webpage
Tobias Levkovich Citi 1,400 webpage
Barry Knapp Barclays 1,420 webpage

Figure 3: S&P 500 (USA) 2011 prediction distribution with predictions.

Hang Seng

Table 4: Some 2011 predictions for the Hang Seng.

person firm value reference
median of 13 The Standard survey 28,800 webpage
Kingston Lin King-kam OSK Asia 30,000 webpage

Figure 4: Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 2011 prediction distribution with predictions.

Shanghai Composite

Table 5: Some 2011 predictions for the Shanghai Composite.

person firm value reference
Guotai Junan 2,800 webpage
JPMorgan 3,370 webpage
Citic Securities 3,500 webpage
Haitong Securities 3,500 webpage
Shenyin & Wanguo 3,800 webpage
Galaxy Securities 4,000 webpage
Sinolink Securities 4,200 webpage

Figure 5: Shanghai Composite (China) 2011 prediction distribution with predictions.

Sensex

Table 6: Some 2011 predictions for the Sensex.

person firm value reference
K. K. Mittal Globe Capital 24,000 webpage

Figure 6: Sensex (India) 2011 prediction distribution with predictions.

Oil price

Table 7: Some 2011 predictions for oil price.

person firm value reference
Deutsche Bank 87.5 webpage

Figure 7: Cushing OK contract 1 (US dollar) 2011 prediction distribution with predictions.

Epilogue

Figures may be reproduced with attribution.

Appendix R

The tables are created automatically by R from the data frames that hold the data for the predictions.  I just copy the R output and paste it into the html editing window.  The xtable package is almost suitable for that, but (as far as I can tell) it doesn’t allow the html commands to go through unaltered.  So I wrote a little function (pp.htmltable) to do what I wanted.

Yet again you can get the R functions that are used via the R command:

> source('http://www.portfolioprobe.com/R/blog/prediction_dist_funs.R')

On one use of this command, I received:

Error in file(file, "r", encoding = encoding) :
cannot open the connection
In addition: Warning message:
In file(file, "r", encoding = encoding) :
unable to resolve 'www.portfolioprobe.com'

However, that was just a temporary glitch.

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2 Responses to Some market predictions

  1. Pat says:

    I should have pointed out in the post a couple of other recent blog posts on predictions.

    World Beta A roundup of market forecasts
    which refers to
    A Dash of Insight Big names, big market calls

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