I predict there will be a lot of predictions of markets for the coming year. Here is a calibration of such predictions. We show the prediction distribution of levels [...]
The blog year started in August and consists of 30-something posts. Here is a summary. Most popular Ideas for World Statistics Day A quant review of "The Quants" by [...]
We're really interested in markets, but we'll start with a series of coin tosses. If the coin lands heads, then we go up one; if it lands tails, we [...]
Except most of the time you get the cheese. The carry trade has been remarkably fruitful, even considering the periodic crashes.
http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7288.pdf
Steven,
Thanks for adding the reference.