This provides revised plots of the prediction distributions published yesterday.  The previous plots of prediction distributions should be ignored -- they are not doing as advertised. We show the [...]

Here we give details and code for the prediction distributions exhibited in yesterday's blog post "Tis the season to predict". [Revision: There was a problem with the plots published [...]

I predict there will be a lot of predictions of markets for the coming year.  Here is a calibration of such predictions. We show the prediction distribution of levels [...]