Market beliefs
April 4, 2011
Friday was a day to fool others. Every day is a day to fool ourselves.
Primed to know
The video gives a great example of how knowing what to expect makes the expectation come true. The entire 13.5 minute talk is wonderful, but you can skip to about the 9 minute mark to experience the Led Zeppelin example.
Market expectations
How much of what you “know” about the market is just what you let filter through? What you or others have told you you should see? We abhor the vacuum of not knowing.
If the efficient market hypothesis were true, then everything you knew about the market would be illusion — the market would be entirely unpredictable. If you’ve been paying attention the last few years, then you won’t think markets are efficient.
But they are close to efficient. Much market knowledge is just randomness with clothes on.
Epilogue
Yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run
There’s still time to change the road you’re on
from Stairway to Heaven by Led Zeppelin.
