Tag Archives: 2011 market prediction

Market predictions for years 2011 and 2012

A review of market predictions and results for 2011, and a calibration for 2012 predictions (of 19 equity indices plus oil). Previously One year ago the post “Revised market prediction distributions” presented plots showing the variability of various markets assuming no market-moving forces. The follow-up post “Some market predictions enhanced some of those plots with … Continue reading

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Some market predictions

We look at a few forecasts for the year 2011 that we’ve run across, and compare them with the prediction distributions presented in Revised market prediction distributions. FTSE 100 There is a “range forecast” on an Interactive Investor page of 5350 to 6565.  It isn’t clear (to me at least) what this means, but I … Continue reading

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Revised market prediction distributions

This provides revised plots of the prediction distributions published yesterday.  The previous plots of prediction distributions should be ignored — they are not doing as advertised. We show the prediction distribution of levels of several equity indices (plus oil price) at the end of 2011 assuming nothing happens.  That is, we’ve taken out market trends … Continue reading

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Tis the season to predict

I predict there will be a lot of predictions of markets for the coming year.  Here is a calibration of such predictions. We show the prediction distribution of levels of several equity indices (plus oil price) at the end of 2011 assuming nothing happens.  That is, we’ve taken out market trends and just left drift … Continue reading

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